The defeat of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is only a short-term victory

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           The Islamic State, commonly known as ISIS or ISIL has unofficially been ousted from many strongholds in Iraq and Syria. The terrorist organization, a once off branch of Al Qaeda, was able to swiftly rise to power in 2014. Three years prior to this, the United States officially backed out of the War effort in Iraq. That same year, President Assad of Syria propelled a gruesome civil war in his country that is just as ubiquitous now as it was in 2011. Terrorist organizations rise to power and thrive in unstable regions of the world. In doing so, groups like ISIS are able to take advantage and easily overwhelm underfunded and exhausted federal forces. In 2013, ISIS was able to capitalize on the instability in Syria and capture the city of Raqqa from rebel forces. Raqqa, the Islamic States’ Syrian capital was liberated from ISIS control in October of 2017 by counterterrorism forces. In 2014, the Islamic State began its campaign to establish a caliphate in Iraq. Within months, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the caliphate in the recently captured city of Mosul, the Islamic States’ Iraqi capital.

            After three years of intense fighting, allied forces have currently pinned the terrorist organization to small strips of territory in the border regions of Iraq and Syria. Many fighters have fled back to the hundreds of countries they travelled from while others have retreated to Northern African countries such as Libya and Somalia. While ISIS does informally operate in a number of different countries around the globe, the main ambition of the organization has been defeated. One major difference between the Islamic State and previous terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda concerns their views of a caliphate. The Islamic State believed that the time for the caliphate, or complete rule of all Muslim’s, needed to be established by 2016. In 2014, the group announced its caliphate. Another major difference that set ISIS apart from other terrorist groups is that it operated under the ideology that only a portion of Muslim’s were true believers, while the rest were fake, or apostates. All apostates were to be killed under ISIS ideology. Subsequently, in 2014, Al Qaeda officially cut ties with the group for their atrocious acts against the Muslim community. With the capture of Mosul and Raqqa from ISIS control, allied forces officially ended a rule under a caliphate.

            The absence of the Islamic State from the region of Iraq and Syria has had significant ramifications. The presence of ISIS in the region created a unionization of states and actors that normally would not function jointly. Iran, Russia, and Syria likely would have never been seen operating alongside the United States and Turkey in the Middle East. Turkey and the Kurdish people never would have seized fighting until there was a group like the Islamic State that groups collectively agreed needed to be eliminated. While there was still disagreement between all of these actors, they did manage to work together and eliminate ISIS from the area over a three-year period. Now, the fighting is nearly over and there is no longer a variable unifying regional actors. As long as there is conflict and hostility in the Middle East and Arab World, terrorist organizations will continue to rise to power much like the Islamic State was able to do.

            The question remains, will the Islamic State retreat and regroup over a period of time or will a new organization in the region emerge? ISIS no longer controls large areas of territory nor do they have an existing capitol such as Mosul or Raqqa to call home. Yet, the leadership of the Islamic State is still powerful and prominent. Although scattered, the organization still has the support of many of its fighters. Many of who have an even deeper hatred against the governments that denied them their caliphate. With instability and violence in Northern Africa, the group has found a temporary home to rebuild. Additionally, the group has foreign fighters in hundreds of countries that have the ability to continue to inflict terror around the globe. Just last week, a group linked to ISIS more than 300 people in a joint terrorist operation in Sinai, Egypt.

Defeating ISIS in Iraq and Syria did not eliminate the group. It did weaken and rob the group from an established caliphate. Yet, ISIS is just as much alive as its leader Abu Bark al-Baghdadi. The group will continue to operate, fight, and run when necessary until its last black flag is destroyed. Until there is stability, peace, and growth in conflict ridden areas terrorism will continue to thrive.

Fighting terrorism is not a lost cause. Every innocent life taken by extremist’s matters. Officials need to continue combating terrorism with force. Continuing to fight and defeat terrorist organizations deters others from following in the footsteps of groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda. However, airstrikes and drone strikes need to be monitored more carefully than ever before as to not result in additional terrorism. Terrorist leaders use every single civilian casualty caused by the United States and allies as an opportunity to recruit new fighters. Abu Musab al-Zarwaqi, the creator of the Islamic State (now deceased) did not have a hatred for the United States until a U.S. airstrike killed some of his family members. To many, the United States is no better than the terrorist groups themselves when publications like The New York Times’ The Uncounted are released describing the high volume of U.S. caused civilian casualties.

Moving forward, counterterrorism officials need to continue putting pressure on the Islamic State as it retreats and new organizations as they attempt to emerge. When there is a terrorist group to fight, there will be civilian casualties. The goal however, needs to be establishing a fine line of killing extremists while reducing civilian casualties. While absolute perfection when it comes to drone strikes and unintended casualties cannot be attained, near perfection must be. The ramifications and consequences of every single airstrike need to be addressed. Will this particular strike kill more civilians than it will terrorists? Will that have greater negative implications than the actual elimination of the terrorists themselves?

Additionally, nations like the United States need to work alongside underdeveloped and conflict stricken countries. A weak government cannot combat terrorists or repel them from gaining strongholds in the country. Corrupt leaders, like President Assad of Syria, cannot effectively fight terrorism while waging war against their citizens. Forming sustainable governments in the Middle East, Northern Africa, and Western Asia is not a simple fix. These areas have been in conflict for thousands of years and will likely never be able to live peacefully. Realistically, defeating terrorism as a whole is unlikely. However, that’s even more of a reason to continue the fight. Although there may always be terrorism in the world that does not mean there aren’t guidelines to follow and precautions to take to prevent violence and protect innocent lives.


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